Saturday horse racing tips from Tom Lunn at Newbury and Ayr
talkSPORT have you covered for horse racing with free racing tips and free bets from the fixtures at Newbury and Ayr for the Scottish Grand National.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Saturday April 20th horse racing tips
AYR
- 1.15: Persian Time 13/2 each-way (1.5pts)
- 3.35, Scottish Grand National: Mr Incredible 11/1 E/W, Tommie Beau 40/1 E/W, My Silver Lining 16/1 each-way (1pt)
NEWBURY
- 1.30: Arrest & Hamish (Combined Exacta) (NAP - 2pts)
- 2.05: Relief Rally 11/4 (1pt)
- 2.40: Zoum Zoum 7/4 (NB - 1.5pts) & Ballymount Boy 15/2 E/W (1pt)
Persian Time
Persian Time is well-weighted on the face of it with two wins from his last two races.
He didn't fare well when upped in trip to 2m4f but won again in March when dropped back in distance to 2m2f.
Beat Homme Public at Ascot in December and that form has also worked out well, which makes him a great price here.
Sans Bruit was a clear winner last time out when given plenty of weight, but that was only nine days prior and he's upped 10lb, so hard to back but will surely still go close.
Arrest & Hamish Combination Exacta
Newbury kicks off its Saturday Premier Raceday with the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes, a Group 3 contest over 1m4f starring Arrest, Hamish, and Al Qareem.
Kieran Shoemark gets his first ride on the Group 1 runner having only been boarded by Frankie Dettori in his last five outings for the John & Thady Gosden-trained four-year-old.
Hamish goes very well fresh, in fact, just in general and is on a four-run unbeaten streak.
Only denied back in October 2022 here by Max Vega by a head on heavy ground.
Strangely he's only ever come second or third at Newbury, but all by small margins, as the consistent William Haggas-trained horse has proven to be a mighty horse over the years.
Hamish beat Al Qareem last time out in November by nearly two lengths and never looked like losing.
He's a great price this time around due to Arrest's reappearance, who has won at Newbury, in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes in August.
Arrest also goes very well fresh and on his 2023 debut won by over six lengths at Chester.
It has to be between these two and I wouldn't want to rule out one winning over the other in what should be a great tussle to the line.
Relief Rally
Next up at Newbury is the Group 3 fillies contest over 7f, the Dubai Duty Free Stakes, with just six runners to analyse.
Regal Jubilee is just about the favourite at the opening of the market, but only just at around 5/2.
Her form hasn't exactly worked out that strongly but she's lightly raced and as a Frankel filly it's always difficult to rule out such a horse, especially in the colours of the Cheveley Park Stud.
But she takes on Relief Rally who's stepping up in trip for William Haggas.
Her form is exceptional and only lost once in the 26-runner Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, over 5f.
She seemed suited to the sprints and upped to 6f last time out beating Cherry Blossom, and she should be suited to the 7f.
Folgaria has been picked up by trainer Marco Botti after winning five out of five in Italy, including the Premio Dormello comfortably.
Star Music has the best chance if the trainer and jockey form is to be scrutinised.
Richard Hughes has a 35% strike-rate at time of writing while William Buick has a 29% strike-rate, a far, far superior success at this time of the season than the rest.
She surprised when coming third to Dance Sequence at Newmarket, but is tough to follow in on that alone, despite her huge success at Kempton in September.
Relief Rally has the form though, that has worked out well since too, and surely has the stamina for 7f.
Zoum Zoum & Ballymount Boy each-way
Zoum Zoum's form has worked out well and if he's progressed over the winter he will be well-in to win this.
He beat Kikkuli at Newmarket two starts ago on heavy ground, comfortably too.
Kikkuli went on to win at Newmarket on the 16th April by a neck which bodes well, and it's no surprise to see Zoum Zoum the strong favourite in a packed field.
However, it's wise to have Ballymount Boy on side too as an each-way play having solid form as a two-year-old including a close second to Vandeek, Indian Run and winning ahead of Alaskan Gold.
Mr Incredible
Carries second top-weight of the field as the number 2 on, but the Mullins-trained horse cannot be discounted from running a better and bigger race than last week in a much weaker contest.
He was just 10/1 on the day Aintree and though he's unseated his rider twice at consecutive Grand Nationals, the Scottish one may be more to his liking.
He placed second behind Beauport at Uttoxeter in March in the Grade 3 Midlands Grand National and last year even placed third in the Kim Muir, over 3m2f.
He thrives over these longer trips and could put those placed efforts behind him by finally getting a win that's well deserved.
He's got the stamina, thrives on soft/heavy and testing ground so could be well suited to the conditions here.
My Silver Lining
Placed a close third behind Beauport and Mr Incredible in the Midlands too, only upped 2lb for that and has also been consistently up there in these tough races.
A very likeable grey mare trained by Emma Lavelle that seems to just keep getting better with every race that's come her way.
All of her races this season have been over 3m+ and may also appreciate if the ground does dry a little, though the soft and testing ground is also no concern as she's not only consistent but versatile too.
Tommie Beau
Tipped at a gigantic price for the Grand National before he was opted to go for the Scottish instead.
He appeals mostly for his each-way value having been seen last over 4m1f at Newcastle, just third behind Anglers Crag.
He's consistently seen over stamina tests and has won eight from 22 chases in his career, including three 2nd places and three 3rd places.
His form reads 1123 over 3m3f+ in his last four races this season and will likely have a well deserved summer break after this.
Tom Lunn's Racing Tips Profit + Loss
- October-Present: +139.19pts
- Total from July 2023: +212.56pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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